تويت
Queuing theory or waiting-line theory problems involve the matching of servers, who provide, to randomly arriving customers, services which take random amounts of time. Typical questions addressed by queuing theory studies are: how long the average customer waits before being waited on and how many servers are needed to assure that only a given fraction of customers waits longer than a given amount of time. In the typical problem applicable to queuing theory solution, people
(or customers or parts) arrive at a server (or machine) and wait in line (in a queue) until service is rendered. There may be one or more servers. On completion of the service, the person leaves the system. The rate at which people arrive to be serviced is often considered to be a random variable with a Poisson distribution having a parameter l. The average rate at which services can be provided is also generally a Poisson distribution with a parameter m. The symbol k is often used to indicate the number of servers.
Monte Carlo
Monte Carlo simulation can be a helpful method in gaining insight to problems where the system under study is too complex to describe or the model which has been developed to represent the system does not lend itself to an analytical solution by other mathematical techniques. Briefly, the method involves building a mathematical model of the system to be studied which calculates results based on the input variables, or parameters. In general the variables are of two kinds: decision parameters, which represent variables which the analyst can choose, and stochastic, or random, variables, which may take on a range of values and which the analyst cannot control.
The random variables are selected from specially prepared probability tables which give the probability that the variable will have a particular value. All the random variables must be independent. That means that the probability distribution of each variable is independent of the values chosen for the others. If there is any correlation between the random variables, that correlation will have to be built into the system model.
For example, in a model of a business situation where market share is to be calculated, a decision-type variable representing selling price can be selected by the analyst. A variable for the price of the competitive product can be randomly selected. Another random variable for the rate of change of market share can also be randomly selected. The purpose of the model is to use these variables to calculate a market share suitable to those market conditions. The algebra of the model will take the effects of all the variables into account. Since the rate-of-change variable can take many values which cannot be accurately predicted, as can the competitive price variable, many runs will be made with different randomly selected values for the random variables. Consequently a range of probable answers will be obtained. This is usually in the form of a histogram. A histogram is a graph, or table, showing values of the output and the probability that those values will occur. The results, when translated into words, are expressed in the typical Monte Carlo form of: if such a price is chosen, the following probability distribution of market shares is to be expected.
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